Oliver's Insights

1/31/2012

The last month or so has actually seen better news regarding the global economy - European Central Bank action appears to have reduced the risk of a banking crisis in Europe, US economic data has continued to surprise on the upside and Chinese economic data remains consistent with a soft landing.
Downwards revisions to World Bank and International Monetary Fund forecasts and associated risks are just catching up to the market concerns of three or four months ago.
While shares are at risk of a short-term correction and Europe remains a source of volatility, the improved global economic backdrop is a positive sign for shares and related growth trades going forward.

The Global Economy looking a little less scary (490 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

1/23/2012

2012 is likely to be a better year than 2011.
Watch European bond yields, Chinese money supply growth and the US ISM index.
The emerging world remains in good shape.
Even if the world does spiral into recession (which is unlikely), Australia will likely continue to grow.
The A$ will remain strong on a medium-term basis, i.e. around parity and beyond.
Medium-term returns are likely to remain constrained and volatile.
There is still a cycle and investors should focus on assets providing decent and sustainable yields.

2012 and beyond - a list of lists (107 KB)

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Winner of the FPA's Associate Financial Planner Best Practice Award

1/6/2012

The FPA's Best Practice Awards recognise the superior outcomes for clients when professional financial planning expertise is provided in line with the FPA Code of Professional Practice and Code of Ethics.

The team at Southern Financial Strategies are thrilled that Steve Salvia was recently awarded the FPA Associate Financial Planner Best Practice Award in late 2011.

The FPA is pleased to announce the  winners of the Best Practice Awards. From the pool of entries received this year, these winners each demonstrated high standards of professionalism and commitment to providing valuable advice and service to clients. 

To read more about this wonderful achievement, please click on the link provided.

 

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WA Financial Adviser wins National Award...!

1/3/2012

Just in case you missed our article in The West Australian Newspapers on the 27th of July, here is a snippet of the article as well as a link to a copy of the article...

"Local Business Specialist and Financial Planner, Steve Salvia has been recognised at the top echelon of the financial planning industry by WINNING the prestigous Association of Financial Advisers (AFA) Adviser of the Year Award! This honour is only given to those financial advisers throughout Australia who are seen as leader and innovators within the finanical planning industry...."

Please click on the link provided below to read the article in full.  

WA Financial Adviser wins National Award (1,929 KB)

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Steve Salvia is an asset to the ranks of Stanford's Who's Who

1/2/2012

Stanford Who's Who welcomes Steve Salvia to the ranks of leading professionals as a result of his phenomenal work in the Financial Services Industry...!

As CEO of the Southern Financial Strategies Group, as well as throughout his brilliant professional career, Mr. Salvia has routinely demonstrated the vision, dedication and diligence necessary to be considered among the best.

To read the full article, please click on the link provided.

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SFS and AF Proudly Supporting Australia's Biggest Morning Tea

12/19/2011

We wanted to take this opportunity to say a big "thank you" to all who were involved in our Australia's Biggest Morning Tea event that took place on the 31st of May. The support was truly overwhelming and it was wonderful to have everyone share their experiences in a friendly, open environment. Please click on the link below to read the full wrap up and see photos from this event.

Australias Biggest Morning Tea (744 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

12/16/2011

2011 has been a year full of disasters with floods, earthquakes, civil wars in the Middle East, and of course public debt woes in Europe and the US. Fears of another global financial crisis and global recession have resulted in a rough ride for share markets.
The shadow cast by Europe means greater uncertainty than normal. However, despite reasonable profit growth, shares have fallen suggesting they have already discounted a lot of the bad news. On top of this, everyone seems to be bearish and monetary conditions are easing further. If the European Central Bank steps up its involvement as we expect and monetary easing continues elsewhere, shares will ultimately have a much better year ahead.
The main risk for 2012 is the potential for Europe to plunge into a deep recession. Other risks relate to a Chinese hard landing and fiscal austerity triggering weaker growth in the US.

2011 in Review (82 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

12/1/2011

The increasing threat from the Euro-zone debt crisis, rising bank funding costs and increasing fiscal drag following Federal Government belt tightening, all against a benign inflation backdrop justify further monetary easing in Australia.
For the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to wait to February before cutting interest rates again would be high risk. A further 0.25% cut in the cash rate (taking it to 4.25%) at its December meeting is justified and further rate cuts are likely to be required next year.

Why the RBA should cut rates again (83 KB)

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Olivers Insights

11/25/2011

The European debt crisis is worsening, posing a major risk to global growth and the investment outlook for 2012. A mild recession in the Eurozone wouldn't be a major problem for the global economy, Asia and Australia, but clearly the risks are rising that it will be deeper recession.
Shares are good value for long-term investors, but the short-term outlook remains uncertain. A re-test of early October share market lows is looking likely. Watch for signs of European Central Bank quantitative easing and unlimited bond buying going forward.

The threat from Europe - how big? (87 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

11/14/2011

In the short term the A$ remains vulnerable to global growth worries stemming from Europe, where the risks have increased dramatically with Italy now in trouble.
However, strong commodity demand and relatively higher interest rates in Australia are likely to see the A$ remain strong over the medium term.

The Australian Dollar and Europe (328 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

11/7/2011

The historical record indicates that shares outperform bonds and cash over the long term.
But the long term should be seen as more than 10 years. It’s not unusual for shares to go through lengthy periods where they underperform cash or bonds.
In this context, the poor experience of the last few years, and the last decade in the case of US and global shares, is not unusual.

 

Shares - how long is long? (499 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

11/1/2011

Europe has announced plans to write down more Greek debt, recapitalise banks, expand the firepower of its bailout fund and strengthen fiscal integration.
Apart from a lack of details, the latest response suffers from a number of weaknesses and it’s doubtful it will mean the end of the European debt crisis. The vicious cycle of fiscal austerity, weaker growth, budget blowouts, ratings downgrades and more fiscal austerity will likely remain. Europe desperately needs easier monetary policy.
The latest plan should help avoid a near-term global financial blow-up and it adds to confidence that global growth will remain positive (albeit sub-par) which should offer some support for share markets which have been fretting about a global recession.

Has Europe done enough? (472 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

10/21/2011

Slowing exports, tight credit and a slowing property market suggest the risks regarding China have increased. Policy makers may also be slow to respond, resulting in further short-term uncertainty.
However, so far there is no sign of a hard landing and while there are likely to be bouts of uncertainty, it is unlikely thanks to spending on social housing, solid consumer demand &and a likely easing in economic policy late this year or early next. But don't expect a re-run of the  4 trillion Renminbi stimulus that was seen in 2008-09 as public debt is higher today and it was ultimately overkill anyway.
Chinese shares are cheap, but require monetary easing before their fortunes turn decisively.

 

China's turn (85 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

10/17/2011

Constrained investment returns and increased volatility are likely to be with us for a while.
Over time this is likely to see the introduction and growth of funds focusing on delivering predetermined outcomes for clients with a greater reliance on asset allocation and a wide range of sources of return.
This is not to say the conventional approach to managing diversified portfolios with its focus on equities for growth funds is wrong. Shares will continue to provide superior long-term returns and are appropriate for long-term investors.
But an outcome/absolute return approach may be worth considering for those with a shorter-term investment horizon or specific needs, say for income.

Outcome based investing (101 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

10/11/2011

The falls in share markets since April have been due to poor global economic data and political dysfunction in the US and Europe.
After falls of 20% or so, shares are good value for long-term investors but it’s still too early to say they have bottomed.
For confidence that shares have bottomed look for Europe to follow through with expanding the firepower of its bailout fund, aggressively buying sovereign bonds and recapitalising its banks along with concerted global monetary easing including in Asia and Australia.

What the world needs now (294 KB)

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RiskInfo Case Study Sept 2011 - Insuring your Friends

9/19/2011

2010 AFA Adviser of the Year, Steve Salvia, shared with riskinfo a case study that highlights the importance of ‘doing the right thing’ for those close to you, whether they are friends, family or other close personal associates.

Please click on the link below to read the full article.

Insuring your Friends (221 KB)

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Financial Standard - Coaching tips invigorate adviser roadshow

9/19/2011

"Financial advisers were treated to a magical list, staff empowerment and "I've got the cookie" in a memorable coaching session on 'how to build an award-winning business at the Association of Financial Advisers national roadshow in Sydney today. Steve Salvia, CEO of Southern Financial Strategies gave helpful pointers on how to increase business and reduce busy-ness."

To read the article in full, please click on the link below.

"Coaching tips invigorate adviser road show" (150 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

9/19/2011

In a world of constrained and volatile investment returns, the yield – or cash flow - from an investment will be increasingly important.
This is particularly the case with shares. In recent decades, investor focus has mainly been on capital growth, but dividends have accounted for more than half of the return delivered by Australian shares since 1900.

Why yield matters for investors - particularly now (268 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

9/19/2011

The gold price has continued to reach new record highs. The key drivers are worries around the value of major currencies and the continuing fall in the opportunity cost of holding gold.
While gold positioning is high, and therefore implying the risk of a short term correction, more upside is likely over the medium term as major countries continue to debase their currencies.
There is an appropriate place for gold in investment portfolios, but its speculative nature suggests only a modest exposure.

Gold - can it keep going higher? (102 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

9/19/2011

The European debt crisis is still far from resolved and while we see growth in the US avoiding a return to recession, the risk is significant. 
The experience of the global financial crisis warns that the stronger structural fundamentals of Asian and emerging countries won’t necessarily protect them from a downturn in advanced countries.
However, it also indicates the emerging world can continue to perform better than advanced countries. Over time this likely means a continuation of the favourable trend in Asian and emerging market shares even though traditional global shares remain mired in a secular (or long-term) bear market.

Asia and emerging countries vulnerability (392 KB)

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The SFS Group wins CEBA Small Business of the Year Award...!

8/26/2011

Hard work, discipline, 'some risk taking' and a determination to be different are just some of the traits that have distinguished Accounting Focus & The SFS Group to be recognised as "WINNER" of the Central Eastern Business Association (CEBA) & City of Bayswater - Small Business of the Year Award and Best Service Based Business Award for 2011...!

Please click on the link provided to read the full article and see some of the award photos.  

CEBA Small Business of the Year Award (689 KB)

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Digital Insights - 3 Simple Investment Rules for Hard Times

8/25/2011

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Digital Insights - Dr Shane Oliver reporting on market volatility, seeking advice and dollar cost averaging

8/25/2011

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Oliver's Insights

8/11/2011

The fall in share markets has accelerated on signs the global economic outlook is faltering badly. The squabbles over debt problems in the US and Europe have probably made the global growth slowdown worse.
The US has avoided a default but still faces a likely downgrade from Standard & Poor's (S&P) and fiscal austerity far earlier than desired. Meanwhile, European sovereign debt problems are getting worse.
This all means the ride for share markets and other growth assets is likely to remain rough in the months ahead.
Shares are cheap, but with the worry list remaining long they could still get cheaper until the US undergoes another round of quantitative easing later this year.
Unlike the US, Australia still has plenty of firepower to stimulate growth if need be, particularly by cutting interest rates.

Slumping global share markets and debt debacles (91 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

8/11/2011

Ratings agency Standard & Poor's has followed through with its threat to downgrade America's sovereign credit rating. Budget savings fell short of the desired levels thought to stabilise the debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio, so America's rating has been downgraded from AAA to AA+.
The impact this downgrade will have on US borrowing costs is likely to be minor, although the market will be swamped by the impact of weak economic growth and safe haven demand for bonds.
Over time it could be a positive for the currencies of other AAA rated countries including the Australian dollar (A$) and Singapore dollar, but in the short term it only adds to existing uncertainty.
The downgrade should have been priced into share markets already, but it reinforces pressure around fiscal tightening in the US as well as being a blow to US confidence.
While shares could remain volatile for a while, there are indications that policy makers will swing into action, with reports the European Central Bank (ECB) will buy Italian and Spanish bonds while the G7 leaders commit to a liquidity injection to stabilise markets.

The US loses its AAA credit rating from S&P (213 KB)

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Coaching Tips Invigorate Adviser Roadshow - Financial Standard

8/9/2011

"Financial advisers were treated to a magical list, staff empowerment and "I've got the cookie" in a memorable coaching session on how to build an award-winning business at the Association of Financial Advisers national roadshow in Sydney on the 27th of July 2011.

Steve Salvia, Finanical coach and chief executive of Southern Financial Strategies gave helpful pointers on how to increase business and reduce busy-ness..."

To read the Financial Standard's article in full, please click on the link provided below.   

Coaching tips invigorate adviser roadshow (146 KB)

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Special Edition - SFS Money Matters - Roller Coaster of Investor Sentiment

8/9/2011

Events within global markets are concerning for many of us. Despite strong overall returns in the two years to the end of April, sharemarkets globally have fallen on the back of US economic growth concerns, debt issues within the Eurozone, low market confidence in the ability of polucymakers to increase economic activity, and the 'spening strike' we've seen in the last 12 months has deepened as consumers retreat further into their shells.

The purpose of this communication is to help you make sense of current finanical events and offer some guidance for the future. While we are confident of better times ahead we recognise that these types of market conditions can test the resolve of even the most experienced investors.

Concern, headwind, confidence, worry...., the repetitive nature of the 'Roller Coaster of investor sentiment' continues to repeat itself over and over again...!   

Roller Coaster of investor sentiment (103 KB)

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Special Edition - SFS Money Matters - Focus on Companies, not Cash

8/9/2011

Events within global markets are concerning for many of us. Despite strong overall returns in the two years to the end of April, sharemarkets globally have fallen on the back of US economic growth concerns, debt issues within the Eurozone, low market confidence in the ability of polucymakers to increase economic activity, and the 'spening strike' we've seen in the last 12 months has deepened as consumers retreat further into their shells.

The purpose of this communication is to help you make sense of current finanical events and offer some guidance for the future. While we are confident of better times ahead we recognise that these types of market conditions can test the resolve of even the most experienced investors.

As you already know, we believe that reacting after markets have already declined usually does more harm than good. We also believe that the probability of long-term investment success is higher for investors who plan and implement a sensible investment strategy and stick to it! A lesson learned from the GFC and other similar unnerving market declines is to ensure that cash is set aside for short term liquidity needs. Beyond that, we look to reinforce the importance of portfolio diversification, a focus on ‘companies’ not countries..., and a medium-term investment focus. The message during this period of heightened volatility is no different.

Focus on Companies, not Cash (49 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

7/25/2011

The macro economic impact from the Government's Clean Energy Future plan is unlikely to be large. The price effects will probably be minor, at around 1% and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to look through them. There might be a slight near-term, negative impact on growth as a result of continuing uncertainty, but this is likely to be reversed next year as compensation payments are received. Longer-term, the impact on economic activity is expected to be minor as the economy adjusts and the clean energy industry grows in importance.
It's hard to see major investment implications at an asset class level. However, carbon pricing will have a significant impact at the sectoral and stock specific level in the share market. A company's level of carbon emissions are becoming an additional factor investors can't ignore.

Impact of the carbon tax on the Australian economy (228 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

7/25/2011

The spreading of the European debt crisis into Italy and Spain is worrying given their greater size. It is clear the crisis is a long way from being resolved, and seems to be following a course like the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 or the US subprime crisis of 2007-09.
Fortunately the emerging world is strong and the US is likely to introduce further quantitative easing if the outlook darkens too much, but European debt issues will likely
remain a threat and a source of volatility for a while to come.

The Euro-zone public debt crisis (again) (266 KB)

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SFS Money Matters - Winter 2011

7/15/2011

Welcome to the latest in our series of SFS Money Matters newsletter.

This quarter I would like to focus on staying the course! Despite all the negative headlines, investment markets in many regions are having a remarkable and strong run. For example, this week in the US, markets have fluctuated daily by hundreds of points or more, simply because we are in continually volatile times. It is my absolute belief that solid investments will most likely remain solid investments – especially if you 'stay the course'. Don't allow a temporary dip or distractions from the media (remember the only bad news sells newspapers or television headlines....) influence you to stop doing the things that have worked over time. Further, when we are building investment portfolios it's 'companies' that we focus on – not countries.  I've dealt with hundreds of clients over time who simply needed a reminder and the courage and reassurance that the right actions will see them through over time. No one wins all the time, but you'll tend to win less if you panic and irrationally change the strategies that you have implemented simply to try and pick the highs and the lows (because let's be honest, that's impossible). "Financial success is for those who win most of the time, because no one wins all of the time".

SFS Money Matters Winter 2011 (589 KB)

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Are you earning but just not saving...?

7/12/2011

Are you earning but just not saving...? (763 KB)

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Conflicting Signs on the Road to Recovery

7/12/2011

We are about half way through 2011, and already there has been several confusing signs & developments that could lead us astray! In this online webcast, Chief Investment Officer Mark Dutton from AXA Australia will spend 9:07mins looking at some of these signs and will try to help you make sense of this conflicting information, to better navigate our way into an uncertain future. To view the webcast, please click on the link provided. We hope you are getting some benefit & value out of our expert commentators opinions and if you would like us to answer something specifc for you, please don't hesitate to contact us and we will try our best to accommodate.  

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Oliver's Insights

7/5/2011

A massive increase in economic and financial information flow is adding to investor jitters and driving a shift further away from long term-investing. This is likely to work against investors over time.
Investors should consider turning down the 'news volume' and refocus on investing for the long term, remembering the best time to invest is when everyone is gloomy. Averaging into weakness is a good way to go.

Is too much information making us worse investors? (366 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

6/28/2011

- Worries about Greece, a slowdown in the US and uncertainty about China have seen shares fall sharply since April highs. After a bounce to relieve oversold conditions, helped by improving news regarding Greece, further weakness in the next few months is still possible as worries persist about the global economic outlook.
- However, we remain of the view the global economic recovery will continue, as some of the temporary factors that have been weighing on growth fade. With shares now very cheap again and monetary conditions likely to remain easy, shares are likely to recover into year end.

How Serious is the Threat to the Global Outlook? (374 KB)

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"The top 5 crucial tips that YOU need to implement to minimise your tax burden" Workshop with Steve Salvia

6/20/2011

Steve Salvia, CEO of Southern Financial Strategies and Accounting Focus, is honoured to be running a workshops for our clients - "The top 5 crucial tips that YOU need to implement to minimise your tax burden...!

This breakfast workshop will be held on Tuesday the 28th of June at 7:30am at Italian's Resturant in Morley.

Please see the invitation attached for all of the event details.

We look forward to seeing you on the 28th...!   

Invitation (623 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

6/13/2011

Consumer caution is clearly evident in Australia with soft retail sales growth, a return to mid 1980s savings rates and a slowdown in household debt growth. The 20-year booming consumer economy from the mid 1980s is clearly over.
This reflects a combination of factors: renewed awareness post the global financial crisis of the dangers of excessive debt, increased sensitivity to higher interest rates, strong increases in the cost of necessities and rising levels of overseas and online spending.
Look for some relief going forward as household savings rates have now been rebuilt, providing a huge buffer for consumers. However, the mining boom probably means consumers will have to stay cautious, whether they want to or not, to avoid an overheating economy (with higher interest rates providing the ultimate enforcement mechanism). It’s hard to see the growth rate in retail sales going back to pre-crisis levels on a sustained basis.

Consumer Caution in Australia (347 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

5/31/2011

Shares and other growth-related investments like commodities are going through another rough patch due to renewed fears about the global growth outlook. Given the unusually long worry list facing investors, this could persist for several months.
However, this should give way to good buying opportunities in the months (or weeks) ahead, as the cyclical

Global Growth Worries (402 KB)

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Your Money Your Future

5/20/2011

Please read this season's edition of Your Money Your Future, containing the following articles:

• Predicting Australia's economic future
• Ensuring your future
• Predicting Australia's economic future continued...
• News bites
• Rebalance - and tone up your investments

Your Money Your Future - Autumn 2011 (625 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

5/20/2011

Australian housing remains overvalued. Combined with high debt levels, this leaves households vulnerable should anything threaten their ability to service debt.
House prices are likely to remain weak on the back of poor affordability. An undersupply of housing provides some support for house prices, but the two key risks to watch are China and rising domestic interest rates.
House price softness, along with weak consumer spending and low levels of confidence regarding family finances, suggests households are already struggling and are good reasons for the RBA to tread cautiously. A June rate hike would be dangerous.
The most likely outcome for average house prices is an extended period of constrained range bound prices while income levels catch up over time, but the risks are on the downside, particularly if interest rates rise much further.

Australian House Prices and Interest Rates (513 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

5/16/2011

Consumer caution, poor housing afford ability, high and rising interest rates and the high Australian dollar are making the latest leg of the mining boom very different for the Australian economy than the first leg last decade. This is evident in the Federal Government’s budget and the struggle to get back to surplus.
This should help avoid excesses in the economy. However it makes for a tough time for sectors outside mining and could see Australian shares continue to lag global shares.

Australia's Latest Mining Boom (294 KB)

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Overview of the Federal Budget for 2011 & Economic Outlook

5/11/2011

2011 Federal Budget Overview (603 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

5/5/2011

America's public debt situation is a major issue for investment markets going forward. Currently it is in worse shape than Spain and Portugal and long-term projections suggest it is on an unsustainable path.
Inflating its way out of the problem is not an option for the US, so sooner or later significant fiscal austerity is likely. This will probably start next year, though real action is unlikely until after the presidential election late next year. This is all likely to result in a constrained medium-term growth outlook for the US, with a possible cyclical economic slowdown in 2013.
While America' fiscal woes are unlikely to derail the current cyclical recovery in global shares, for investors it likely means longer-term downwards pressure on the US dollar, ongoing interest in hedges against a falling US dollar such as gold and the Australian dollar, an ongoing source of volatility for investment markets and constrained longer-term returns for US shares compared to shares in emerging countries.

US Public Debt - how big a threat? (120 KB)

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Winner of the AFA Adviser of the Year Award for 2010

4/11/2011

Click on the link below to read more about the 2010 AFA Adviser of the Year Award

AFA Adviser of the Year Award (781 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

4/11/2011

After relative calm in financial markets from September to February, it seems the worry list for investors has blown out again to include: Japan, oil prices, inflation, China, US housing, the US Federal Reserve's exit from easy monetary policy, European debt problems and high US public debt.
These might all result in bouts of volatility, with the US Federal Reserve's eventual shift away from easy monetary policy being the key worry to watch. However it’s unlikely these worries will be enough to prevent decent gains from shares over the year ahead.
In some ways having a few worries is healthy because it stops investors from becoming excessively exuberant and suggests there are still investors sitting on cash who can enter share markets over time, providing fuel for further gains.

Continuing recovery, but still a long 'worry list' (294 KB)

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Life According to Steve Salvia

4/11/2011

"Steve Salvia is the winner of the 2010 AFA Adviser of the Year Award. He is the Managing Director of Southern Financial Group, which includes a finanical planning business and business coaching arm. Emily Saint -Smith spoke to Steve about his Award, his business and his views on current industry issues..."

To read the full article, please click on the link below.

Life According to Steve Salvia - Risk Info March (1,312 KB)

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Investor Daily - WA planning firm makes acquisitions

4/11/2011

"Western Australia-based Financial Planning firm Southern Financial Strategies (SFS) has significantly expanded its business operations following the acquistions of an accounting practice and a business coaching business in the past 18 months..."

To view the full article, please click on the link provided below.

Investor Daily - WA planning firm makes acquisitions

  

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Winner of the AXA Financial Advice Network (FAN) WA Financial Adviser of the Year

4/10/2011

AXA State Adviser of the Year (59 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

4/1/2011

The A$ is continuing to push further above parity against the US dollar (US$), reaching a 29-year high. This reflects a combination of strong commodity prices, US$ weakness and high Australian interest rates. 
Unless the global economy slides back into recession, which appears unlikely, the A$ is likely to average above parity over the next few years on the back of strong commodity prices and relatively high Australian interest rates. Expect US$1.10 by year end.
The strong A$ will likely cause more pain for internationally focussed Australian companies that don't have a natural hedge in the form of higher commodity prices like resources companies do. However, on balance a strong A$ is positive for the Australian economy, and is part of the adjustment made necessary by strong demand for Australian raw material exports. It's worth bearing in mind that strong and successful economies tend to have strong currencies. If a weak currency was the way to permanent prosperity then Bolivia and Zimbabwe should be topping the world per capita GDP tables, which they clearly do not!

US dollar breaking down (449 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

3/28/2011

Global oil prices remain under upward pressure from turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. This will dampen global growth and add to the financial pressure on Australian households.
The real problem for Australia is that the rise in oil and petrol prices will add to consumer caution. While higher energy prices will boost national income, and hence resource sector investment, the rise in petrol prices over the last month has already added another $5 to the weekly petrol bill for a typical Australian family. It is now just $10 a week below the 2008 high.
The global and Australian economies and share markets can probably live with current oil price levels. However, a sustained sharp rise in the oil price to US$140 would make life a lot more difficult.

Rising oil prices - what is the tipping point? (411 KB)

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Point of View - US economy back on track

3/16/2011

Prior to the recent natural disasters in Japan (more on this shortly) the US economy has returned to the same size as before the GFC struck. The fact that it has taken three years for it to return to these levels highlights how deep the recession was, however history shows that once recovery starts it usually takes around 9 months for growth to return to pre-recession levels. This time it took 18 months. A huge surge in US exports and investments, the housing market beginning to stabilize and consumer spending also beginning to recover once again highlight the need to look past the headlines. The US has its problems, but the world biggest economy is back in growth mode and providing attractive investment opportunities for well diversified and astute investors..!

US economy back on track (98 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

3/16/2011

The Japanese earthquake has caused terrible human suffering and our thoughts are with the Japanese people and all those affected.
In the short term, the earthquake will likely depress Japan’s economy as a result of damage to factories, power supply, transport infrastructure and confidence. However, by the second half of the year the rebuilding effort is likely to result in a boost to growth. 
While it has added to short-term uncertainty in global investment markets, we don’t expect the earthquake to derail the global economic recovery or growth in Australia. In fact, increased commodity demand associated with rebuilding will ultimately provide a boost for Australia. We continue to see the recent pullback in share markets as a correction, and not the start of a new bear market.

The likely economic & financial impact of Japan (258 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

3/8/2011

The Australian December half-yearly profit reporting season was better than expected, though it did reinforce the picture of a three-speed patchy economy. A similar picture was provided by December quarter gross domestic product data which came in better than expected, with growth of 0.7% in the quarter (2.7% over the last year) but with very soft private demand growth of just 1.6% last year.
Expect solid economic growth from the June quarter to drive profit growth of around 15% over the year ahead, led by the mining and banking sectors with industrials (excluding banks) returning to high single-digit growth.

Profit Reporting Season Wrap Up (429 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

2/23/2011

While mainstream global shares may be due for a short-term correction, any pullback should be seen as a buying opportunity as the cyclical recovery in shares still has further to go. Shares are still cheap, confidence in the sustainability of the cyclical global economic recovery is continuing to build and share market liquidity remains favourable.
US shares are in the 'sweet spot' of the investment cycle and for a short while are likely to further outperform Asian and emerging markets, which are having to tighten monetary conditions in order to head off an inflation threat.
Australian shares are likely to be in between: monetary tightening in Asia may act as a short-term constraint on Australian shares but with monetary conditions already normalised in Australia and the Reserve Bank of Australia ahead of the curve, Australian shares are likely to continue to benefit from the positive lead flowing from US shares.

Where are we in the investment cycle for shares (363 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

1/31/2011

Australian shares have disappointingly underperformed traditional global shares over the last year on the back of monetary tightening, worries about an Australian housing bubble, the strong Australian dollar and Chinese tightening.
Many of these concerns should be largely factored in and we see better returns this year, but some still linger so it is too early to say the relative underperformance is over.
However, on a five-year basis, the combination of higher dividends, better growth prospects, less structural constraints and franking credits for Australian-based investors suggest investors should maintain a bias towards Australian shares, although maybe not as large a bias as was warranted a decade ago.

Why are Australian Shares Lagging (373 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

1/24/2011

Like the bushfires of two years ago, the floods have wrought terrible tragedy in terms of loss of life and disruption to people's lives. Beyond the human suffering there will also be significant implications for the Australian economy and investment markets.
Expect the floods to knock around 1% (or $13 billion on an annualised basis) off the Australian economy in the December and March quarters. Rebuilding should see 0.5% of this recouped by year end and a further modest boost to growth through 2012.
Higher food prices, notably for fruit and vegetables, will add around 0.5% to 0.75% to inflation in the March quarter. In terms of damage to physical assets – property and infrastructure – the flood could cost $15 billion with rebuilding likely to be spread over several years.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to look through the short-term boost to inflation and focus more on the short-term hit to growth, leaving rates on hold until around mid-year. However, once production rebounds and rebuilding kicks in it is likely to return to raising rates from around mid-year to head off an overheating in the economy.
While the floods have led to earnings downgrades, the impact on markets overall should be minor, in part offset by higher coal prices. Australian shares are cheap, having lagged global markets over the last year, and we remain of the view that, notwithstanding short-term uncertainties, they will head to around 5500 for the ASX 200 by year end.

The Implications of floods for Australia (191 KB)

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Your Money Your Future

12/13/2010

Please see this season's edition of Your Money Your Future, containing the following articles:

YMYF - Summer 2010 (730 KB)

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Point of View

11/12/2010

In this Point of View, AXA's Chief Investment officer Mark Dutton looks at the US Federal Reserve's unconventional plan to stimulate the economy and considers what this policy measure means for the markets.

An unconventional plan (145 KB)

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Congratulations to Steve Salvia - AFA Adviser of the Year

10/28/2010

AFA Adviser of the Year for 2010 - Steve Salvia (266 KB)

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Point of View

10/26/2010

Widespread falling prices might sound like a good thing, but not so.  US authorities are getting focussed on the risk of deflation, while Australia is more concerned about keeping the lid on inflation.  In this Point of View, AXA's Chief Investment Officer Mark Dutton puts the current issues into perspective for investors.

US deflation - Australia inflation (68 KB)

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Finalist for AFA Adviser of the Year

10/19/2010

This is a huge honor as Steve is the only adviser from last year to be nominated again and the only adviser from WA…!  The nomination is only awarded to
 those financial advisers throughout Australia who are seen as leaders and innovators within the financial planning industry.  The winner will be
 ultimately judged based on a range of criteria including:
·       Experience
·       Qualitative assessment of the business (client journey, client service, systems and processes, compliance, marketing, etc)
·       Quantitative assessment of the business (financial performance, revenue growth, client retention, etc)
·       Practice management
·       Contribution to the community
·       Contribution to the industry
·       Educational background and qualifications

We wish Steve the best of luck for the award ceremony on Tuesday the 26th of October.
Please click on the following links for further information.
AFA Adviser of the Year 2010: Press Release
AFA Adviser of the Year Announced: Press Release
Six Finalists Biographies

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Oliver's Insights

10/7/2010

Asset bubbles are a fact of life and flow from human nature which has a strong tendency to jump on to popular fads.  There is a long history of new bubbles forming from the ashes of the last burst bubble - and this time around it's unlikely to be any different.  Easy global money - which is getting easier as growth remains sub-par in developed countries and as various emerging countries resist upwards pressure on their currencies - is setting the scene for the next asset bubble.  Potential candidates are gold and commodity prices, emerging markets and resources shares, however the absence of obvious overvaluation suggests that we are still in the foothills of the next bubble.

Bubble trouble - the next global asset bubble (94 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

9/30/2010

Unlisted commercial property prices have strated to grind higher after a 20% slump through 2008 and 2009.  Expect a continuing but gradual recovery in returns going forward, on the back of attractive yields and constrained office supply, but only modest growth in space demand reflecting the somewhat mixed nature of the economic recovery.  Returns from unlisted commercial property are likely to average around 9 to 10% p.a. over the next few years.

Return outlook for unlisted commercial property (674 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

9/24/2010

The sub-par recovery in the US, Japan and Europe and constrained fiscal policy most likely means that we will see another round of global policy reflation, centred on quantitative easing (or printing money).  This will be bad news for G3 currencies, but good news for Asian currencies and gold.  It will likely also help stimulate the next asset price bubble.  The Australian dollar (A$) is likely to head higher as Japan and the US boost their money supplies and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to raise Australian interest rates.

Global reflation mark II, gold and the A$ (383 KB)

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Point of View

9/14/2010

When fear comes to town, all risks are out of favour and safe options become expensive.  Behind the scenes, the 'fundamentals' are getting better, not worse.  Investment strategies based on 'fundamentals' have not failed.  They should deliver when risk aversion eventually subsides.

When fear comes to town (172 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

9/6/2010

Although the risks have increased, we remain of the view that the US and global recovery will continue.  Whether there is a US double dip or not, it's clear the growth outlook in the US and other major industrialised countries will remain fragile, constrained and volatile until the imbalances of high household gearing and public sector debt are worked off.  However there are still opportunities for investors to make decent returns by focusing on high-yield assets or assets which don't suffer from growth constraints.  Attractive assets on one or both of these grounds are Asian and emerging market shares, Australian shares, commercial property, infrastructure and corporate debt.

Where to invest in a troubled world? (337 KB)

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Your Money Your Future

8/31/2010

Please see this season's edition of Your Money Your Future, containing the following articles:

• Super shortfall leaves retirees in the lurch
• Super: the pros and cons of do-it-yourself
• Covering all bases
• Good versus bad: battle of the debt
• Wanted: suitable care for aged parent

 

YMYF - Spring 2010 (715 KB)

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Point of View

8/27/2010

A hung parliament is not necessarily a negative outcome even though it is currently generating much uncertainty.  Minorities can form a stable government.  The Australian dollar is susceptible to an environment of additional uncertainty because it is at the high end of its valuation range.  In contrast the Australian sharemarket is at the low end of its valuation range, but is unlikely to make much headway until there is more clarity as to how the situation will play out.

A hung parliament is not necessarily a hung market (70 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

8/25/2010

The unclear Australian election result has added to investor uncertainty in Australia and doesn't augur well for stable visionary policymaking for the next term of government.  Beyond a few financial market jitters and lost opportunities until the next election, the uncertain election outcome doesn't justify big falls in Australian investment markets, as it's unlikely to threaten Australia's favourable longer-term prospects

Australia's less than certain election result (209 KB)

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World Markets - the BT view

8/12/2010

The market fell overnight: what does this mean for your investment?

Overnight figures showed the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, FTSE 100 all fell by around two to three percent and today the Australian market is lower.  What's causing the volatility, what can we expect from here and what does this mean for the Australian market?

World Markets - the BT view (257 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

8/10/2010

It is hard to see the surge in wheat prices over the last two months having anything other than a minor temporary impact on the rate of inflation.  More fundamentally, thanks to continuing excess capacity in major industrialised countries, deflation is more of a risk than a surge in inflation.  This means continuing low global interest rates and bond yields for some time to come.  Deflation is less of a threat in Asia and Australia.

Inflation, deflation or just 'lowflation'? (334 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

8/4/2010

The slowdown now underway in China should be seen as a normalisation of growth.  It is unlikely to turn into a hard landing.  China's moves to prevent overheating and rebalance its economy have been successful, and tightening measures will start to be relaxed some time in the next two to three months.  Chinese shares have been leading global shares lately and are worth keeping an eye on.  Right now they are cheap and, with policy tightening largely over, may be in the process of bottoming ahead of a leg higher into year end.  If this is the case, it  augurs well for Asian and Australian shares, and for global shares generally.

China slowing, not collapsing (448 KB)

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Point of View

8/4/2010

Australia's exports to China are narrowly based and this could have significant implications for our economic growth in the near to mid term.  Both the Australian dollar and the Australian sharemarket are heavily influenced by prospects for China's growth.

How much does Australia rely on China? (68 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

7/19/2010

While the risk of a double dip for the global economy has increased, we remain of the view that it will be avoided.  Shares may still see further weakness i nto September/October but are likely to experience strong returns on a six to 12 month horizon as it becomes clear the global recovery is continuing.

Double dip risk has risen but still not probable (547 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

6/2/2010

The perceived importance of asset allocation in driving investors returns faded during the 1990s as a result of high overall returns from most asset classes and relatively high correlations between bonds and shares.  However, the dismal returns from global shares over the last decade, a constrained overall return outlook, increasingly wild swings in share markets and the return of more volatile economic cycles are serving to highlight the importance of asset allocation.

Asset allocation isn't everything, but nearly is (89 KB)

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Congratulations to SFS!

6/2/2010

SFS was recently recognised in the West Australian after Steve was named a finalist in the 2009 Association of Financial Advisers (AFA) Financial Adviser of the Year Award.  Please click the link to view the full article.

West article - Congratulations to SFS! (985 KB)

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Point of View

5/24/2010

The magnitude of the €750 billion stabilisation package announced last week largely surprised financial markets.  It buys time for Greece and other troubled countries in the Euro periphery to get their financial houses in order.  The plan requires Greece to reduce its budget deficit to under 3 percent of GDP by 2014 - it's currently around 13.6 percent of GDP.  Risks still remain - recent events indicate the difficulties that other countries will face in getting their debt levels under control. 

The fire is out, but there are still problems (51 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

5/21/2010

Share markets and other listed growth assets have fallen sharply on the back of European public debt worries, regulatory action against US and European banks, and worries about Chinese tightening.  The impact on Australian shares and the Australian dollar has been magnified by concerns around the planned Resource Super Profits Tax.  It's too early to say if the falls are over, but we see it as part of a correction - albeit a severe one - rather than the start of a new bear market.

The return of gloom (528 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

5/20/2010

European authorities have provided a strong lifeline for troubled European countries.  This, along with the stronger state of the global economy today, should help prevent the European public debt crisis turning into a re-run of the global financial crisis (GFC).  Longer term though, public debt crises in advanced countries are likely to remain a recurrent theme.

The Euro Zone Debt Debacle & Global Recovery (369 KB)

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Federal Budget Update

5/14/2010

For details on the 2010 Federal Budget announcements, please see this summary as provided by AMP.

Federal Budget 2010 (32 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

4/30/2010

The ongoing Greek debt debacle has the potential to contribute further to a correction in shares.  It's unlikely the situation will seriously threaten the global economic and share market recovery. Greece is an extreme case in terms of its public finances, the risks are better known than with the sub-prime crisis, Greece is very small and so far there is no sign of any flow-on to the debt of key advanced countries.  Shares were due for a correction but the underlying backdrop remains favourable.

The Greek debt debacle (229 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

4/30/2010

Asian economies are undergoing a normal cyclical rebound on the back of a strong rebound in global trade, easy economic policies and strong domestic demand.  Growth will likely remain robust going forward.  While Asian shares have underperformed so far this year, the combination of reasonable valuations and stronger gtrowth potential point to a resumption of relative outperformance over the years ahead.

Asian shares in a secular bull market (93 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

3/25/2010

It seems that there are still plenty of things for investors to worry about: a double dip in the global economy; high private and public sector debt in key countries; a policy tightening; a resurgent US dollar (US$); and a possible China collapse among them.  Fortunately, most of these are not as worrying as they appear.  More broadly though, it is actually a sign of a healthy market when there is still so much scepticism and fear around.  It indicates there are still plenty of buyers sitting on the sidelines that will help push share markets higher over time.

Revisiting the 'worry list' for investors (193 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

2/17/2010

The Australian economy is set to grow by around 4% through this year, reflecting the lagged impact of monetary and fiscal stimulus, high levels of business and consumer confidence, the rebound in wealth, and higher export prices.  This is likely to push unemployment back below 5% over the year ahead.  The long-term outlook for the Australian economy is also bright reflecting Australia's exposure to high growth Asia, strong population growth, low public debt, and a reasonably healthy financial sector.  This provides a relatively favourable backdrop for Australian assets.

The Australian economy heading into a better place (460 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

2/15/2010

A global blowout in public debt has been a key outcome from the global financial crisis.  Aging populations are also playing a role.  Debt crises in peripheral countries such as Greece and Dubai probably aren't enough to create a major global problem, and default is highly unlikely in key advanced countries such as the US, UK and Japan.  However, high public sector debt and/or measures to deal with it will act as a significant medium-term constraint on growth in advanced countries.  Fortunately, emerging countries generally have low public debt levels, as does Australia.

The blowout in public debt - how big an issue? (196 KB)

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Point of View

1/12/2010

A growth manager seeks to identify stocks that are likely to grow faster than consensus estimates.
A value manager seeks to capitalise on controversy and hold stocks that are out of favour with the market and trading below intrinsic value.
While growth and value often follow different cycles, this is not always the case. Both styles of investing can perform strongly or poorly at the same time.
The next phase of the rally is likely to be underpinned by earnings, providing considerable upside for both growth and considerable upside for both growth and value.

Opportunities in the next phase of recovery (54 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

12/10/2009

2009 has been a year of recovery.  First in share markets and then in global economic activity.  While unlisted assets have remained under pressure, they always lag and now look to be bottoming.  Patient investors have seen some recovery in their wealth after the losses of 2008.  2010 is likely to see the economic recovery continue and become self sustaining.  This will underpin gains in most growth-oriented investments.

Review of 2009 and outlook for 2010 (208 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

12/1/2009

More increases in Australian interest rates are likely in the year ahead as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) seeks to move rates towards normal levels.  The normal level is now judged to be around 5.00%.  The process of tightening is likely to remain gradual due to falling underlying inflation and lingering uncertainties about growth.  The cash rate is unlikely to reach 5.00% until around the end of 2010. 

Rising Australian interest rates (130 KB)

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Update on AFA Adviser of the Year Award

11/11/2009

In our previous announcement, Steve Salvia announced his selection as a finalist for the Association of Financial Advisers (AFA) Adviser of the Year Award for 2009.  Please follow the link below to find out how Steve went at the Awards dinner....

SFS Money Matters followup Nov 2009 (638 KB)

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Finalist - AFA Adviser of the Year 2009

9/29/2009

Congratulations goes to Steve Salvia for being chosen as one of the final 6 for the Assocation of Financial Advisers (AFA) Adviser of the Year Award 2009.  Steve will be flying to the Gold Coast for the Gala dinner where the winner will be announced on Tuesday the 7th of October.  Well done and good luck from the team at SFS! We will all have our fingers crossed. 

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Point of View

9/18/2009

A rally from the bottom of the market can create a false signal that markets have rallied too far and too fast, so it's worth being clear on the  numbers.  We are not even half way back yet.  From its low point of 3112 (6 March 2009) to the present level of 4541, the Australian All Ordinaries Index has risen by 46 per cent.  But the current level is still 34 per cent lower than its November 2007 high.  In other words, the rally has only recovered a little more than one third of the decline.  The Australian sharemarket still needs to rally another 51 per cent from current levels to return to its previous high.

Market rally - has it come too far? (69 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

8/20/2009

The equity risk premium is the excess return that shares provide over a 'risk free' asset like government bonds.  It is perceived that shares should return between 5% to 7% per annum (pa) over bonds because this is what their excess return has been over much of the post-war period.  However, this likely exaggerates the required excess return for shares.  Due to the recent bear market, shares have struggled when compared to bonds over the last decade.  This should not be interpreted as meaning that shares are a dud investment.  In fact, thanks to current low government bond yields and higher dividend yields on shares, shares should provide a good risk premium over bonds for the decade ahead.

 

Are shares offering enough of a risk premium (179 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

7/31/2009

The evidence is continuing to accumulate that shares have embarked on a cyclical recovery.  Further gains are likely: shares are cheap and the economic recovery will lead to an improvement in the profit outlook.  There are still plenty of funds sitting on the sidelines and there is still a lot of healthy scepticism about the rally which is normally a good sign.  Past cyclical upswings have seen Australian shares rise an average of 132% over an average of four years.

From bear to bull- the cyclical upswing in shares (145 KB)

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North Seminar Invite

7/24/2009

We would like to offer you the opportunity to attend a free client session on Thursday the 6th of August 2009 for an economic market update and information on a new investment offering which can  protect you against the ups and downs of investment markets.  We did run a similar session to this in December last year.  Please refer to the invitation for further details.

Economic Update & North Seminar Invitation (335 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

7/24/2009

The slump in investment markets has seen superannuation funds post negative returns for a second financial year. While disconcerting, periodic negative returns from growth assets are normal and are the price we pay for the higher long-term returns they provide.  Reacting to the current turmoil by moving to cash will lock in losses and only lead to lower long-term returns. Fortunately, there are signs of improvement.  Share and credit markets led the way down and they are now leading on the way up as the global financial crisis is abating and leading economic indicators are pointing to an economic recovery ahead.

Two consecutive years of negative returns (431 KB)

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The Pain Report

7/22/2009

'Buy and hold is now dead, as is its conceptual foundation, the efficient market hypothesis.'

In the late seventies an economic adviser to Jimmy Carter, by the name of Alfred Kahn, purportedly said that there was the possibility of a deep, deep depression.  Kahn was told in no uncertain terms that he was never to use this word and thereafter Kahn decided to say that America was in danger of having the worst banana in 45 years.

The Big Banana (271 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

7/13/2009

Australia has so far had a very mild economic downturn compared to other countries and its own history.  It's likely that the Australian economy went backwards in the June quarter and that this will continue into the current quarter.  This, along with falling inflation and rising unemployment, is likely to prompt more interest rate cuts over the next six months.  Later this year and through 2010 a sustained recovery is likely to kick in, driven by the rebound in China, housing and public investment.  In the meantime, economic indicators are likely to be a mixed bag.

 

Australian economy - recession, recovery or both (101 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

7/6/2009

There is a long 'worry list' being thrown up in regards to the outlook for shares and other growth oriented assets including indebted consumers, inflation (off the back of ballooning budget deficits and central banks pumping money into their economies), worrying demographic trends, etc.  While most of these cannot be ignored, and some will likely constrain returns over the medium term in mainstream global equity markets such as the US, they are not as worrying as they appear...

The 'worry list' for investors (248 KB)

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Caton's Corner

7/1/2009

Happy New Financial Year!  It will almost certainly be better than last year!  Despite the fact that the ASX200 index rose in each of the last four months of the year, it still finished down by 24% for the year as a whole.  This was its second successive down year, with the index having fallen by 17% in 2007/08.  This is the biggest one-year loss since 1982, and the worst two-year performance for more than 70 years.  As a result, most superannuation (and other) investors have lost a good deal of money for two years in a row. Faith in the process of wealth accumulation has been severely tested...

Economics Report 1 July 2009 (34 KB)

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Point of View

6/25/2009

Governments around the world are driving recovery with aggressive economic policies, creating both opportunities and threats for investment markets.  For this Point of View, AXA's National Development Manager - Investments Carmel McKenzie put some of the key questions raised by advisers to AXA's Chief Investment Officer Mark Dutton...

Investing in a world of government debt (60 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

6/12/2009

Listed property securities (or REITS), whether in Australia or globally, have been the worst affected asset class throughout the global financial crisis.  From their highs in 2007 to their lows in March this year, US REITs had a 77% fall and Australian REITs had a 79% fall.  This compares to top to bottom falls in global and Australian equities of around 55%...

Listed property securities - have they bottomed? (90 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

6/2/2009

Given the complexity of investment markets and investing, along with the massive amount of information available to investors, many people rely on logic based on 'common sense' or simple 'rules of thumb' in making investment decisions. However, while some rules of thumb are reasonable, in many cases they are not and can result in investors missing opportunities or losing money...

Myths and mistakes investors often make (92 KB)

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SFS Money Matters May 2009

5/29/2009

Well... what an interesting few months it has been in the share markets!  Since its low of 3,090 points on March 10th 2009, the Australian All Ordinaries Index has risen 22% to the 28th of May 2009 (2 and a half months...) where we are currently at 3,754 points.  Is this the start of the new growth cycle???...

Money Matters May 2009 (319 KB)

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The Pain Report

3/27/2009

'The technical picture does look compelling as we "unwind" what was a very oversold market.'

At the outset may I say I have really struggled this month to put pen to paper.  Yes I am confused.  But let's first review events over the last month and then we can deal with my sense of confusion.  Since the last Pain Report the U.S. market did, in fact, make new lows with the S&P 500 reaching the ominous level of 666.79 on 6 March, and we have since seen a very impressive rally, with the S&P at the time of writing up about 22%. 

Confused? (278 KB)

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Your Money Your Future

2/26/2009

Looking at life another way?  Discussing life goals with a financial adviser can have unexpected benefits.

YMYF - Summer 2008 (592 KB)

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IFA Article

2/26/2009

If you would like to know a little more background about our business, please read the attached article which appeared in the February 2009 edition of IFA magazine, a publication to the finance industry.

Unearthing hidden talents (127 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

2/26/2009

Through prehistoric to modern times, gold has been a source of fascination for mankind.  Some see it as the only truly safe way to store wealth and that the decition to break the link between gold and paper currencies was the undoing of the global economic system.  Others see it as a barbarous relic with no intrinsic value apart from that deriving from its appearance and hence its use in jewellery...

Will the gold rush continue 25022009 (112 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

2/11/2009

Many fret that the rise in budget deficits and public debt now underway in most countries, including Australia, will simply push up inflation and bond yields, and hence private sector borrowing rates.  Partly, reflecting these concerns, ten year bond yields have risen from their lows early this year - from 2% to 2.8% in the US, from 3% to 3.9% in the UK and from 3.8% to 4.3% in Australia.  This note looks at the key issues...

Public debt & bond yields 11022009 (78 KB)

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Olivers Insights

12/18/2008

2008 has certainly been an odd year.  At the start of the year inflation was a big worry.  Now deflation is rapidly becoming a worry as inflation rates around the world are plunging towards zero.  So what is deflation?  Why is it a problem?  What is driving it?  What does it mean for investors?  And how likely is sustained deflation?...

Deflation 18122008 (94 KB)

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North Seminar Invite

11/25/2008

We held a seminar on 2 December 2008 on a recently released product offering called North, as well as a market update. 

For those who attended, I know you found it very insightful.  For anyone who was not there and is interested in finding out more, please email us at info@southernfinancial.com.au or phone 08 9259 5777 and we can provide you with further deatils.

For further information please open the invitation attached.

North Seminar Invite (335 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

11/25/2008

Lehman Brothers' collpse in September and the resulting panic it set off in global money markets, and more broadly in confidence, has caused immence damage to the global economic outlook. In particular, it would seem that the efforts by the US Government to convince Congress to pass the bank rescue program last month by arguing it is a Main Street problem as well as a Wall Street problem has convinced investors and the wider global population of the seriousness of the situation...

Global Recession 20112008 (71 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

10/24/2008

China's economy is now slowing significantly.  This note looks at the likely severity of the slowdown and implications for commodity prices and China's share market...

China Slowdown 21102008 (79 KB)

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Oliver's Insights

10/14/2008

Trying to time the bottom of this bear market is proving very hard.  A couple of weeks ago I thought we were close to the bottom with shares looking cheap, investors in panic mode and shares having had typical bear market declines.  I have been proven to be wrong with shares taking another big hit last week as problems in  money and credit markets intensified...

Global financial panic 14102008 (93 KB)

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